The Relegation and champions league effects

Abstract

The purpose of this analysis is to study whether a football team’s performance in the English Football League affects the re-election of the incumbent MP. To investigate the question “Are voters blind?”. I.e., Do voters take events out of the hands of the incumbent politician into account when voting in an election? The main hypotheses investigated are (1) there is a negative effect of threat of relegation on incumbent vote share in the UK and (2) there is positive effect of other footballing outcomes such as Champions League qualification on incumbent vote. Using OLS regressions on football and election results between 1979-2019, this paper finds that there is a positive significant relationship between positive footballing outcomes on incumbent vote share. There is also a negative relationship between relegation and incumbent vote share. The results also find significant results in regards to turnout and The Labour Party specifically.